Trump’s Big Weekend Could Derail the G-7

War on the Agenda

This is a big weekend for U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to celebrate his 80th birthday on Sunday with a UFC fight night on the White House lawn. At the same time, he and his national security team are trying to finalize a deal to end the Iran war, which they hope to sign in the next “few days.”

The success (or lack thereof) of this weekend’s negotiations is likely to color next week’s G-7 leaders’ summit in the French Alps. The Iran war has been a major source of tension between the United States and several other G-7 members, particularly those in Europe. That’s due in part to the war’s ongoing economic impact, but also because of Washington’s failure to consult its allies or give them warning before launching the war. Trump has also railed at European countries, including the United Kingdom and Germany, for not doing more to help open the Strait of Hormuz and in some cases refusing to let U.S. forces use their bases to launch strikes on Iran.

One senior diplomat from a G-7 country told Reuters that a deal to end the war could enable the group to put these tensions behind them. It would also allow the bloc to turn its attention to other pressing challenges. European leaders reportedly plan to use the summit to seek Washington’s buy-in on a new push for talks between Russia and Ukraine to end that conflict. However, if the Iran negotiations collapse yet again and lead to a resumption in fighting, that could end up dominating the summit.

Conflicting updates on the status and content of a U.S.-Iran deal are already causing plenty of uncertainty.

Iranian media reported on Friday that the latest text of the deal included measures keeping the Strait of Hormuz under Tehran’s control, suspending U.S. sanctions on Iran, withdrawing U.S. forces from the Middle East, requiring Washington and its allies to pay Tehran at least $300 billion for reconstruction, and releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Within hours, Trump denied these terms, calling Tehran’s statement “weak and pathetic” while stressing that “with them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi then posted on X that a deal “has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.” The statement appeared to please Trump, as he reposted it on his own Truth Social account.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has helped mediate the negotiations, expressed similar sentiments a short while later. “Amid ongoing intense mediation efforts by Pakistan, we are fully aware of incessant misinformation campaign being waged by those who want to sabotage the peace deal. Setting aside the noise, we can confirm that a final, agreed upon text of the peace deal has been reached and Pakistan is now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps,” Sharif wrote on X. “Peace has never been this close as it is now.”

Today’s Most Read

What We’re Following

Immigration overhaul. The European Parliament provisionally agreed to a new set of guidelines on Friday that will streamline how members of the European Union address immigration and asylum requests. “The pact turns 27 different ways of doing things into one,” said Hans Leijtens, the executive director of Frontex, Europe’s border security and coast guard agency.

Under the new policy, foreigners will be screened at EU borders for up to seven days, requiring many countries to build facilities that can process screenings, asylum requests, and detentions. Some members will also need to adopt Eurodac, a new biometric database that can register and store migrants’ information. Asylum requests from designated “safe” countries or from individuals deemed a “security threat” will be processed within three months instead of six. Asylum-seekers will be required to undergo a mandatory preliminary screening at the bloc’s external borders. And migrants will only have one chance to appeal a rejected application.

The new Common European Asylum System delivers a big win to far-right parties that have long sought to limit migration into the bloc. Still, the European Commission admitted on Friday that no EU nation is fully ready to implement the new system, and rights activists warned that the policy could amplify growing anti-immigrant sentiment and bolster populist, xenophobic agendas.

Another 30 years. A South Korean court sentenced former President Yoon Suk-yeol on Friday to 30 years in prison for sending military drones into North Korea in October 2024. Prosecutors argued that Yoon aimed to provoke Pyongyang into attacking, thereby creating a pretext for him to declare martial law just two months later. These actions led Seoul’s Central District Court to find Yoon guilty of aiding the enemy and abusing his presidential powers.

Yoon has denied all wrongdoing, with his legal team arguing that he did not order or approve the drone operation. Instead, his defense maintains that the incursion was in response to Pyongyang sending balloons stuffed with trash and excrement over the border; both countries have launched so-called propaganda balloons into each other’s territory since the Korean War. Yoon is expected to appeal Friday’s ruling.

The former president is already serving a life sentence for charges of using a short-lived martial law order in December 2024 to orchestrate an attempted insurrection. He was impeached and officially removed from office last year over his actions and still faces additional criminal charges, including using military troops and presidential guards to obstruct his own arrest.

No more than 10 million. Swiss voters will go to the polls on Sunday to determine whether the country should become the world’s first nation to cap its population. The ruling right-wing Swiss People’s Party has argued that curbing immigration will improve quality of life by addressing housing, infrastructure, and environmental concerns. However, polling predicts a narrow race, as public opinion remains divided over if (and how) the country should close its borders.

If the referendum is passed, then Switzerland would limit its population to 10 million people; the small country has around 9.1 million residents. When this number reaches 9.5 million people, then Bern would have to begin restricting asylum requests and family reunification efforts. Were the population to surpass 10 million, then the Swiss government would be required to act more forcefully, potentially ending free movement with the European Union.

Critics warn that cracking down on immigration could hurt Switzerland more than help it, as several vital industries—such as finance, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and technology—rely on immigrants for labor. They also argue that restricting free movement could damage Bern’s close relationship with the EU and ultimately threaten its security.

What in the World?

The results of Peru’s presidential runoff election on Sunday were still too close to call at time of writing. How many presidents has the country had in the past decade?

A. One

Odds and Ends

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire on Friday, after the U.S. aerospace and tech company priced its record-setting initial public offering at $135 per share. With a net worth surpassing $1 trillion, Musk is wealthier than most countries; only 19 nations have GDPs that exceed $1 trillion, according to the World Bank. And during a time of extreme wealth inequality, Musk is now richer than the bottom 46 percent of the global population combined (or a total of 3.8 billion people), according to Oxfam.

And the Answer Is…

D. Nine

Whoever wins will still face an uphill battle to govern effectively, as Peruvians have forced out six of those nine leaders, Foreign Policy’s Catherine Osborn reports in Latin America Brief.

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