Its northern Kurdistan Region is being hit by both sides.
Foreign Policy
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ERBIL—Before the current war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, Iraq was experiencing a long-awaited revival. Erbil, long considered the country’s most stable area and the capital of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, saw new apartment complexes and tower cranes, while U.S. investors operated its oil fields and business delegations sought opportunities for economic cooperation. After recovering from eight years of U.S.-led occupation beginning in 2003, and the war against the Islamic State, Iraq managed to avoid being dragged into the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, preserving its fragile stability.
Since the latest war with Iran began on Feb. 28, though, Iraq and especially its northern Kurdistan Region have emerged as a battleground, caught between both sides of the conflict. No other country has been struck by both sides in this way. Iraq has come under fire from multiple directions: U.S. and Israeli strikes have targeted Iran-backed militias on Iraqi soil, while Iran and its proxies have launched missiles and drones at U.S. bases and Kurdish areas in response.
ERBIL—Before the current war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, Iraq was experiencing a long-awaited revival. Erbil, long considered the country’s most stable area and the capital of the semi-autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, saw new apartment complexes and tower cranes, while U.S. investors operated its oil fields and business delegations sought opportunities for economic cooperation. After recovering from eight years of U.S.-led occupation beginning in 2003, and the war against the Islamic State, Iraq managed to avoid being dragged into the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, preserving its fragile stability.
Since the latest war with Iran began on Feb. 28, though, Iraq and especially its northern Kurdistan Region have emerged as a battleground, caught between both sides of the conflict. No other country has been struck by both sides in this way. Iraq has come under fire from multiple directions: U.S. and Israeli strikes have targeted Iran-backed militias on Iraqi soil, while Iran and its proxies have launched missiles and drones at U.S. bases and Kurdish areas in response.
The attacks from the Iranian side intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that armed groups of Iranian Kurds inside the Kurdistan Region could potentially serve as boots on the ground. “I think it’s wonderful that they want to do that, I’d be all for it,” the U.S. president said when asked about the prospects of a Kurdish rebellion in Iran. Although he later walked back his remark, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has since relentlessly targeted what it describes as separatist groups.
Much of the barrage has been aimed at the U.S. military presence at Erbil International Airport, with incoming projectiles largely intercepted by air defense systems. Residents of the city, especially in the Christian-dominated suburb of Ankawa, given its proximity to the airport and the U.S. Harir Air Base, have been hearing near-nightly explosions. Debris often falls close to residential areas. Iran-backed armed groups under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces have attacked not just the airport and military base, but also diplomatic missions, oil fields, refineries, and residential areas.
A man in a black knit hat, green jacket, and camouflage pants stands amid the rubble of a destroyed building. Large chunks of concrete and cinder blocks surround him. In the background, a flag with a sun symbol is partially visible among the ruins.
Amer Khaled at the site of an airstrike on the group’s camp in Iraqi Kurdistan on March 11.
On March 4, Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK) member Amer Khaled heard an explosion at 11 a.m. at his home near Gomaspan, approximately 30 minutes from Erbil. Then he heard two more. Khaled ran through a compound of mustard-colored houses—a settlement for the wives and children of party members—to the office of Hussein Yazdanpanah, the group’s leader.
There, in the rubble, he found one of his comrades, 31-year-old Kevan, dead. “He left behind a wife and 2-year-old son,” Khaled said.
Fortunately, Khaled explained, the families who lived there had been evacuated two days earlier because of a drone strike on a nearby hill. “Otherwise, there would have been many more victims,” he said.
Amid the neat rows of the settlement, shattered windows revealed kitchen utensils, makeup items, and clothing; a playground had been abandoned, and burnt fragments of missiles were strewn about it. Khaled and his party colleagues say they are certain of one thing: The attack was Iranian.
A group of people stands near a large tan tent at the base of a steep, rocky hill. The scene is lit by low sunlight, and a small drone is visible in the blue sky above the mountain ridge. A leafless tree stands in the foreground to the right.
A small drone is seen in the air above Komala-Toilers of Kurdistan Peshmerga fighters at a camp in the Zagros Mountains on March 1.
Both the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the authorities in Baghdad have issued statements that Iraqi soil will not become a launchpad for attacks. Still, while trying to avoid direct involvement, Baghdad is struggling to contain Iran-aligned militias, exposing the limits of state authority and risking renewed internal fragmentation after a period of relative calm.
“I am concerned, because regional wars rarely remain external. They tend to deepen internal fault lines, especially in countries with unresolved political and sectarian tensions,” Ano Jawhar Abdoka, the KRG’s minister of transportations and communications, told Foreign Policy.
Kurdish groups remain a wild card. They maintain they have good relations with the KRG and authorities in Baghdad, both of whom are seeking neutrality. Yet many Iranian Kurdish parties say they are ready to join the fighting—provided they receive support from the United States and Israel.
Reza Kaabi, secretary-general of the Komala Toilers party, told Foreign Policy at the group’s safe house in Erbil that, if such assistance were provided, its fighters would be ready to cross the border. The most important factors, he said, are closing the airspace over western Iran and providing air support. “Under such conditions, we have a chance to remove regime forces from western Iran,” Kaabi claimed.
The possibility of armed groups acting independently creates one of the most serious risks, said Abdoka. “When nonstate actors make decisions that affect war and peace, they weaken the authority of lawful institutions in Baghdad,” the minister said. “By doing this, they are weakening the legitimacy of the Iraqi state that cannot protect its citizens from inside threats.”
As the attacks grow more frequent and deadly, tensions are spilling into the open. On Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said Iraq would summon the envoys of both the United States and Iran to deliver “formal notes of protest” over the escalating violence. A day later, a U.S. aerial strike on a military health care clinic in western Anbar province killed seven fighters and wounded 13. After the attack, Sudani instructed the foreign ministry to summon the U.S. chargé d’affaires in Baghdad over strikes targeting what the government described as Iraqi “military units.”
Two people in olive uniforms stand behind a low wall of piled stones in a rocky, mountainous area. The person on the right is seen from behind and carries a rifle slung over their shoulder, while the person on the left wears a black and white patterned headband.
Peshmerga fighters from the Komala-Toilers of Kurdistan party during military training at a camp in the Zagros Mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan on March 9.
Beyond direct security implications, the war is also delivering a severe fiscal shock that is making life harder for residents and straining the country’s fragile political and sectarian balance. Around 90 percent of Iraq’s public budget depends on oil revenues, yet exports have sharply declined since the start of the war due to regional disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure.
Total exports are hovering at just 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, said Luay al-Khatteeb, Iraq’s former electricity minister. That’s less than 9 percent of normal levels, and, Khatteeb said, “if the conflict continues in the coming weeks, public-sector employees may not receive their salaries next month.”
Khatteeb said that while other regional countries might survive months of disruption on energy markets, Iraq is not one of them—and that’s because of its population size. “Excluding expatriates, the native population in the Gulf is relatively small compared to the region’s financial reserves, allowing those states to sustain themselves longer during crises—something Iraq, with its larger population and limited reserves, cannot do.”
Plus, in previous rounds of escalation, Iran pursued a policy of containing militias. This time, it is actively trying to draw Iraq into the conflict, Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, said.
“The Iraqi government is now stuck,” Mansour said. “Even if it takes a neutral position, there are very significant armed groups connected to the government that will pursue their own policies.” Kata’ib Hezbollah, widely seen as the most powerful of Iraq’s Iran-aligned militias, said in a statement on March 16 that it would continue attacks “until the last foreign soldier leaves Iraqi territory.” The group warned that the country would not see stability while foreign troops remain: “Either everyone enjoys security, or no one does.”
A flag with a bright yellow sun on red, white, and green horizontal stripes lies draped over rubble inside a heavily damaged room. Broken cinder blocks, twisted metal, and the remains of upholstered furniture are scattered across the floor against a backdrop of cracked walls.
The flag of Kurdistan rests amid the rubble at the house and office of Hussein Yazdanpanah, leader of the PAK, in March after an airstrike.
Since the inconclusive parliamentary elections in November 2025, Iraq has been stuck with a caretaker government led by Sudani. Attempts to form a new coalition stalled after fierce opposition—both inside Iraq and from Washington—to the possible return of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. With a weak mandate and limited powers, Sudani’s government has little ability to rein in the country’s powerful armed factions, many of which appear increasingly willing to test the limits of the state.
Now electricity shortages are affecting most citizens. Grid power in Erbil is available for only about four to six hours a day. Combined with a closed airspace, disruptions to supply chains are limiting the delivery of food, medicine, and other essential goods. Analysts warn that the crisis will deepen civilian suffering while also eroding U.S. influence in an already volatile region.
“The U.S. will lose,” Mansour said. “Its companies are pulling out, so its economic influence is declining, as well as its ideological influence—because it’s being seen as a part of an illegal war.”
