Senior Israeli officials state that significant gaps still exist between the US and Iran, with the key question for Israel not just being what the Iranians are willing to offer to reach a deal and end the conflict, but how much US President Donald Trump is prepared to concede in order to achieve a diplomatic success.
“While there is some movement, it isn't necessarily leading to a breakthrough,” Israeli sources noted in private discussions. “This progress is largely driven by pressure. Each passing day puts more strain on the Iranian economy, but it also impacts Trump. Gas prices in the US remain high, which the public is feeling in their wallets. Republicans are starting to grow concerned as they observe the polls, which are not looking promising for the upcoming midterm elections.”
Israel is closely monitoring statements from the White House. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with US President Donald Trump nearly every day, with their last conversation taking place late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Recently, Trump mentioned that there is a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement with Iran, even suggesting that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile could be transferred to the United States.
Meanwhile, reports from the US indicate that both sides are close to finalizing a short, 14-point understanding document. This document aims to formally end the latest confrontation and open a 30-day window for detailed negotiations regarding the nuclear program, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is not rushing to embrace American optimism
However, several key issues remain unresolved, particularly concerning monitoring. Will Iran allow for surprise inspections? Will the monitoring mechanisms be stricter than those outlined in the Obama agreement? Furthermore, is the freeze on uranium enrichment intended to be permanent, or is it only a temporary limit on enrichment levels? These are critical questions for Jerusalem.
For Israel, if Iran retains its knowledge, infrastructure, and centrifuges, even under a temporary freeze, it could swiftly resume progress toward developing a military nuclear capability in the future.
As a result, Israel is not rushing to embrace American optimism. "All this talk about an agreement being close is just part of the ritual," sources say. "Whenever drafts are exchanged, there’s always mention of progress. The real question is whether there’s actual movement toward closing the gaps. According to our estimates, the gaps remain unchanged. If there has been any progress, it's not significant."
In Jerusalem, officials believe that political pressure on Trump is increasing. "He’s at his lowest approval rating since taking office," the sources note. "Although he’s not up for re-election himself, Republicans are looking ahead to the upcoming elections, and they’re not pleased. This situation directly affects their prospects."
This pressure isn’t just political. In the US, there are growing concerns about regional instability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Any further escalation could send oil and fuel prices skyrocketing again, hurt the US economy, and drag the administration into a broader military conflict, exactly the scenario Trump has been trying to avoid from day one.
The core issue in the negotiations centers around enriched uranium. The United States is insisting on a complete freeze of uranium enrichment for an extended period, coupled with the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. Publicly, Iran indicates that these demands are far from acceptable, with a senior member of the Iranian parliament even describing the draft as "the US wish list."
'When disputes remain unresolved, they kick the can down the road'
In Israel, officials stress that the debate extends beyond whether Iran will halt enrichment for a specific timeframe. A more pressing concern is what Iran will retain afterward. "This is precisely the discussion we had during the Obama agreement," sources note. "If you allow Iran to maintain its enrichment capabilities, including its centrifuges and knowledge, you leave it with the capacity to resume enrichment whenever it chooses."
According to Israeli estimates, the Americans are currently advocating for a multi-phase agreement model: an initial agreement now, with more difficult issues postponed for later. In Jerusalem, officials view this as a warning sign. “They resort to multi-phase agreements when they can’t reach a tangible agreement,” the sources say. “That’s what we observed in Gaza: when disputes remain unresolved, they kick the can down the road.”
Israel's concern is that the first phase will essentially become the main agreement. This might involve lifting some sanctions, allowing money to flow into Iran, and the international community celebrating a “historic breakthrough,” all while critical issues remain unaddressed. For Israel, this represents a dangerous scenario: an interim agreement that provides Iran with economic relief without dismantling its capabilities.
“For Israel, the worst-case scenario is a bad deal,” the sources say. “Any deal that gives Iran money without dismantling its enrichment capabilities is problematic.”
In Jerusalem, officials acknowledge that the current situation is not necessarily unfavorable for Israel. No agreement has been reached, sanctions remain in place, and there is no direct escalation between Israel and its adversaries at this time. According to sources, "If this situation could continue for months, it wouldn’t be a bad situation from Israel's perspective. However, it’s clear that this cannot go on indefinitely."
Behind the scenes, Israel is attempting to assess how committed Trump really is to the positions he has outlined. Netanyahu and Trump communicate frequently, but Israeli officials express uncertainty about whether the American president is presenting his final stance or leaving himself room to maneuver until the last moment.
This uncertainty also stems from Trump’s character. Israeli analysts believe he is looking for a deal that can be marketed as a quick diplomatic victory. "The big question is whether Trump will feel enough pressure to compromise," the sources say. "Currently, our assessment is that the Iranians have not offered him enough for him to declare a deal."
