The TWZ Newsletter

Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has denied claims circulating online of the loss of another F-15E Strike Eagle, this time over enemy territory, as part of ongoing operations against Iran. Earlier this week, three Strike Eagles were downed in an apparent friendly fire incident, reportedly by a Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornet. All of this comes as the U.S.-Israeli air campaign continued to expand, and as the overall conflict has otherwise spilled further through the region.

You can catch up with our latest coverage of ongoing operations against Iran here.

“Rumors circulating on social media of a U.S. F-15E crash in Iran early Wednesday are baseless and NOT TRUE,” CENTCOM stated on X Thursday morning.

A CENTCOM spokesperson also told TWZ directly that there have been no aircraft downed other than those in Kuwait.

The denial came after a now-deleted post from the popular @sentdefender account on X claiming a F-15E had gone down went viral, with at least nearly 800,000 views. The post said the aircraft had gone down during a strike mission over southwestern Iran, but said the proximate cause was unknown. The Strike Eagles were said to have been able to eject safely and were then recovered in a joint U.S.-Israeli combat search and rescue mission. Claims about the loss had already been swirling amongst the open-source community.

“We have made the decision to delete reports made last night regarding the crash of a USAF F-15E Strike Eagle in Iran and the successful evacuation of the crewmembers by U.S. and Israeli Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR),” the account wrote in a new post today. “Defender Media maintains confidence in its sources, however, the story is as of now being officially and publicly denied by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).”

We have made the decision to delete reports made last night regarding the crash of a USAF F-15E Strike Eagle in Iran and the successful evacuation of the crewmembers by U.S. and Israeli Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR). Defender Media maintains confidence in its sources, however,… pic.twitter.com/E1IYxcAwXs

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 5, 2026

TWZ has reached out to @sentdefender for further comment.

This is not the first time CENTCOM has taken part in the online information war that has become standard for conflicts in the social media era. Yesterday, the command took to X to refute several claims made by Iran about killing 100 Marines, sinking a destroyer, taking down other aircraft, and forcing U.S. troops to withdraw from the conflict.

“ALL LIES,” CENTCOM stated in its post.

More fake news from the Iranian regime:
🚫The regime claims U.S. forces are withdrawing.
🚫They say they sank a U.S. destroyer.
🚫IRGC claims to have taken down U.S. fighter aircraft.
🚫The regime says they killed 100 U.S. Marines.
ALL LIES.

Reality:
✅U.S. forces are… pic.twitter.com/X0P0X4VdTa

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 4, 2026

What is true is that the U.S.-Israeli air war over Iran is expanding and includes an increasing number of aircraft employing stand-in munitions closer to their targets. Potential risks can only be magnified, at least to a degree, as operations push deeper into Iran. There is always the potential for aircraft to go down for reasons other than enemy fire, as well.

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece. We will return later with continuing coverage of the ongoing conflict.

UPDATE: 6:40 PM EST –

Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Navy Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), have held a joint press briefing. Several key takeaways are as follows:

.@CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper: "In just the last 72 hours, America's bomber force has struck nearly 200 targets deep inside of Iran… In just the last hour, U.S. B-2 bombers dropped dozen of 2,000lb Penetrator bombs targeting deeply buried ballistic missile launchers." pic.twitter.com/GwsoQ37gJi

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 5, 2026

On the matter of the ‘drone carrier,’ it is worth noting that CENTCOM previously said it had targeted Iran’s Shahid Bagheri, an unusual ship often described in this way, as you can read more about here. Satellite imagery TWZ previously obtained of the Iranian Navy’s main base at Bandar Abbas had also shown what looked to be the sea base-type ship Makran on fire. It remains unclear which ship Adm. Cooper was referring to.

“The amount of combat power that’s still flowing, that’s still coming, that we’ll be able to project over Iran is a [sic] multiples of what it currently is right now, when you add up our capabilities and those of the Israeli Defense Forces,” Secretary Hegseth said.

“We got there, and that’s now part of the way that we’re operationalizing bomber runs,” Hegseth added in response to a question about access to British bases like Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to support Operation Epic Fury, which was reportedly initially denied. “When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities, and it’s more bomber pulses more frequently. The amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically, and part of it is that we’re gonna have even more basing. And it’s not just the U.K. We’ve had other friends step up, and we’re grateful for that.”

“As CENTCOM pointed out, those reports of an F-15 being shot down are false,” Secretary Hegseth also said at the press conference, reiterating the previous denial.

The reports of an F-15 being shot down are FALSE!

.@SECWAR "As you can imagine, Iran is doing EVERYTHING it can to peddle in lies…

They have shut down the internet. They are hoping they can convince their own population that they are having success." pic.twitter.com/HfOSK3Qx99

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) March 5, 2026

Hegseth also pushed back again on reports about concerns about stockpiles of key munitions.

.@SECWAR "We have no shortage of authorities.

The admiral knows we have clear objectives with maximum authority on the battlefield.

The dumb, politically correct wars of the past are the opposite of what we are doing here." pic.twitter.com/Jq46kGy0L8

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) March 5, 2026

The pictures and videos below are said to show the aftermath of an Iranian ballistic missile impact in central Israel. The missile may have carried a cluster munition warhead, according to The Times of Israel.

Footage shows what are likely sub-munitions from an Iranian cluster bomb warhead crashing down in Israel this evening, amid a ballistic missile attack.

The IDF has previously confirmed that Iran has launched ballistic missiles carrying cluster bomb warheads at Israel.

The… pic.twitter.com/2jGQUv7plt

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump has called on Iranian diplomats around the world to defect from the regime in Tehran.

A war powers resolution seeking to curb U.S. military operations against Iran has failed to pass in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Breaking: The House rejected, 212-219, an Iran war powers resolution that would have sought to curb U.S. military operations.

Four Democrats voted against the measure: Landsman, Golden, Cuellar and Vargas.

GOP Reps. Massie (cosponsor) and Davidson voted in favor.

— Mark Satter (@marksatter) March 5, 2026

Claims have been circulating today that the U.S. Navy has been employing the High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical Dazzler and Surveillance (HELIOS) system in support of Operation Epic Fury. HELIOS is only known to be installed on one ship at present, the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Preble, which was in port in Japan at least as of February 20. Another Arleigh Burke class destroyer, the USS Stockdale, is participating in Operation Epic Fury, but is equipped with the very different Optical Dazzling Interdictor (ODIN) laser directed energy weapon. Whether ODIN has been employed as part of ongoing operations against Iran is unknown.

UPDATE: 4:57 PM EST –

U.S. Central Command edited a post on X that originally said “Rumors are circulating on social media of a U.S. fighter jet crash over Basra. These are baseless and NOT TRUE.” to read instead that “Rumors are circulating on social media of a U.S. fighter jet shot down over Basra. These are baseless and NOT TRUE.”

In speaking directly to TWZ, U.S. Central Command had also denied claims that a U.S. military aircraft had been shot down over Iraq, and said the change in the X post’s language was simply a matter of semantics.

Al Jazeera and Rudaw had earlier reported that a search was underway for a U.S. pilot after their plane went down in Iraq’s Basra region, citing local police officials, but did not give a reason for why the aircraft had come down.

#BREAKING: Basra Police Command in Iraq reportedly told Al Jazeera: “Our elements have been dispatched to search for an American pilot who crashed within the province's borders and has not been found yet” https://t.co/JUDSPSAqGd

— ELINT News (@ELINTNews) March 5, 2026

#BREAKING: Basra Police confirm to Rudaw that a US aircraft has crashed within the borders of the province. Security forces have launched a search operation for the pilot. pic.twitter.com/8SpZJz5YF9

— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) March 5, 2026

Regardless, TWZ continues to highlight the potential risks associated with the expanding U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. This all comes amid widespread misconceptions about the degree to which air superiority, let alone air supremacy, has been achieved, as you can read more about in our new piece here.

UPDATE: 3:45 PM EST –

“We are now moving to the next phase of the campaign, in which we will increase the damage to the foundations of the regime and its military capabilities,” IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir has said in a statement. “We have additional surprising moves, which I do not intend to reveal. We will pursue our enemies, all of them, and we will find them.”

“The Israeli Air Force has carried out 2,500 strikes and dropped over 6,000 munitions,” Zamir also said. “We have neutralized and destroyed more than 60 percent of the ballistic missile launchers” and 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems.

IDF Chief-of-Staff Eyal Zamir:

"We are now moving to the next phase of the campaign, in which we will increase the damage to the foundations of the regime and its military capabilities. We have additional surprising moves, which I do not intend to reveal. We will pursue our… pic.twitter.com/xUc2k4d5Uj

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 5, 2026

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir in a press statement says Israel has destroyed 80% of Iran's air defense systems, "and achieved almost complete air superiority in the skies of Iran."

"The Israeli Air Force has carried out 2,500 strikes and dropped over 6,000 munitions,"…

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

The IDF continues to release footage from strikes in Iran and Lebanon.

The IDF releases footage of airstrikes targeting several Iranian soldiers in Iran earlier today.

The attacks took place amid a wave of strikes against some 200 targets in western and central Iran, according to the military. pic.twitter.com/zoeMaBrkbU

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

A top Hezbollah commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut yesterday, the military announces.

According to the IDF, Zaid Ali Jumaa was responsible for Hezbollah's "firepower management" and served as the head of its artillery forces in southern Lebanon.

"As part of… pic.twitter.com/A2eF7mZECF

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

The IDF says its aircraft collectively flew more than 7,000 flight hours and struck more than 750 targets in the first 100 hours of Operation Roaring Lion.

The videos below are said to show a major strike in Iran’s Bushehr region earlier in the week. There are reports that Bushehr Air Base was the target.

The Ministry of Defense of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has released a new tally of interceptions of Iranian missiles and drones in the course of the conflict so far. The country’s forces have downed 196 ballistic missiles, eight cruise missiles, and 1,072 drones, per the latest data.

There are reports of a drone attack in Iraq’s Duhok province near an oilfield operated by U.S. firm HKN Energy.

Two drones have fallen near the Chamanke town of Duhok province in the northern Kurdistan Region-Iraq.
HKN, an American oil company, is operating an oilfield in the area. pic.twitter.com/Nln1RrIuMN

— Baxtiyar Goran ☀️ (@BaxtiyarGoran) March 5, 2026

The U.S. State Department has suspended operations at the American Embassy in Kuwait City, Kuwait, indefinitely. “While there have been no reported injuries to U.S. personnel, the safety of Americans abroad remains the highest priority of the U.S. Department of State,” the Embassy said in a press release.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said that his government made the decision to kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayollah Ali Khamenei back in November and planned to do so within a six-month timeframe, according to Reuters.

JERUSALEM, March 5 (Reuters) – Israel took the decision to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in November and was planning to carry out the operation around six months later, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

The picture below is said to show Iranian sailors from the IRIS Bushehr being brought ashore in Sri Lanka.

The 208 crew members of the Iranian vessel “IRIS Bushehr” anchored near the Port of Colombo are being brought ashore by the Sri Lanka Navy.

They will be taken to the Welisara Naval Base, while the vessel is expected to be moved to the Port of Trincomalee, the President said. pic.twitter.com/5cJAUgYC1P

— Vidharshana Fernando (@MsVidharshana) March 5, 2026

UPDATE: 2:23 PM EST –

The IDF says it has now conducted 12 waves of strikes on Tehran. Israeli forces also continue to hit targets elsewhere in Iran.

⭕️The IDF completed its 12th wave of strikes across Tehran.

📍Alborz province: The headquarters of the special unit responsible for all internal security forces was targeted.

📍Tehran: Targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij organization, and a…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 5, 2026

The IDF issues an "urgent warning" to Iranians in industrial zones near Tehran of ahead of planned airstrikes.

"Urgent warning to all individuals located in the Abbas Abad industrial area and also the Shenzar industrial area near Sharif Abad in eastern Pakdasht. In the coming… pic.twitter.com/Cgr7LmYI0x

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

In its latest wave of airstrikes in the Tehran area, the IDF says it struck the headquarters of Iran's special forces, bases of the Basij paramilitary force, and other regime sites.

Some 90 Israeli Air Force fighter jets participated in the strikes, hitting some 40 targets with… pic.twitter.com/To8jbW4APy

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Iranian authorities say the total death toll from U.S.-Israeli strikes is now 1,230, but again with no breakdown between civilians and members of the country’s military and security forces.

Iran said the death toll in the country from U.S.-Israeli strikes had risen to 1,230 people.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

Israeli operations in Lebanon also continue to expand. Alerts were issued earlier in the day advising residents in broad swaths of the Beqaa Valley and the capital Beirut to evacuate ahead of air strikes. Lebanese authorities say that 102 people have died and 638 more have been wounded in Israeli strikes so far.

The IDF issues a wide evacuation warning in Lebanon's eastern Beqaa Valley ahead of airstrikes on Hezbollah sites.

"Urgent warning to the residents of the Beqaa area, specifically the residents of the villages and towns: Douris, Brital and Majdaloun. Hezbollah’s activities in… pic.twitter.com/2uO7VUbObT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Previous evacuation warnings in Beirut have been for specific buildings that the IDF has then struck. The latest order covers four major neighborhoods in the southern suburbs of the city.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Lebanon's health ministry says 102 people dead, 638 wounded in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since monday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

The video and pictures below are said to show a fire at the Bahrain Petroleum Company’s (BAPCO) oil refinery in the Ma’ameer following an Iranian attack.

The earlier Iranian attack on Azerbaijan has caused that country to close a portion of its airspace over the southern end of the country. This adds to already significant airspace closures across the broader region.

Following drone strikes on Nakhchivan International Airport (NAJ) earlier today, Azerbaijan has closed the airspace in its southern sector. Learn more about this, and more, in our updated list of airspace closures and restrictions: https://t.co/AU0KOdzprt pic.twitter.com/X19SnOglD5

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) March 5, 2026

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has told NBC News that his country is prepared for a ground invasion in a new interview. He also said that Iran is still refusing to engage with the United States and has not asked for a ceasefire.

BREAKING: Iranian Foreign Minister tells NBC News that Iran is ready for a U.S. ground invasion of the country as the war between Iran, the U.S. and Israel has quickly spread across the region.

He also refuses any negotiations with the U.S. and says that Iran had not asked for a…

— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 5, 2026

UPDATE: 1:57 PM EST –

The IDF says it has now conducted 12 waves of strikes on Tehran. Israeli forces also continue to hit targets elsewhere in Iran.

⭕️The IDF completed its 12th wave of strikes across Tehran.

📍Alborz province: The headquarters of the special unit responsible for all internal security forces was targeted.

📍Tehran: Targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij organization, and a…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 5, 2026

The IDF issues an "urgent warning" to Iranians in industrial zones near Tehran of ahead of planned airstrikes.

"Urgent warning to all individuals located in the Abbas Abad industrial area and also the Shenzar industrial area near Sharif Abad in eastern Pakdasht. In the coming… pic.twitter.com/Cgr7LmYI0x

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

In its latest wave of airstrikes in the Tehran area, the IDF says it struck the headquarters of Iran's special forces, bases of the Basij paramilitary force, and other regime sites.

Some 90 Israeli Air Force fighter jets participated in the strikes, hitting some 40 targets with… pic.twitter.com/To8jbW4APy

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Iranian authorities say the total death toll from U.S.-Israeli strikes is now 1,230, but again with no breakdown between civilians and members of the country’s military and security forces.

Iran said the death toll in the country from U.S.-Israeli strikes had risen to 1,230 people.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

Israeli operations in Lebanon also continue to expand. Alerts were issued earlier in the day advising residents in broad swaths of the Beqaa Valley and the capital Beirut to evacuate ahead of air strikes. Lebanese authorities say that 102 people have died and 638 more have been wounded in Israeli strikes so far.

The IDF issues a wide evacuation warning in Lebanon's eastern Beqaa Valley ahead of airstrikes on Hezbollah sites.

"Urgent warning to the residents of the Beqaa area, specifically the residents of the villages and towns: Douris, Brital and Majdaloun. Hezbollah’s activities in… pic.twitter.com/2uO7VUbObT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Previous evacuation warnings in Beirut have been for specific buildings that the IDF has then struck. The latest order covers four major neighborhoods in the southern suburbs of the city.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

Lebanon's health ministry says 102 people dead, 638 wounded in Israeli attacks on Lebanon since monday.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

The video below is said to show strikes on an Iranian missile base in the country’s mountainous Damavand region.

The IRGC’s Damavand missile base, an underground facility east of Tehran used to store ballistic missiles and air defense systems, was heavily struck today. pic.twitter.com/vdf093dYB5

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 5, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted that the U.S. government will have a role in choosing Iran’s future leadership, per Reuters. Trump said today that he would be personally involved in such a selection, according to Axios.

Trump spoke with @steveholland1 and reiterated that the U.S. would have a role in choosing Iran's next leader. "We don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again … Somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country," Trump said. https://t.co/UM8E0hStIA

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 5, 2026

Another @BarakRavid exclusive:

President Trump told Axios in an interview Thursday that he needs to be personally involved in selecting Iran's next leader.

“Khamenei's son is a lightweight. I have to be involved in the appointment”https://t.co/ejaFJiGDS1

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) March 5, 2026

UPDATE: 1:20 PM EST –

U.S. Central Command has released a new video showing B-52 bombers flying in support of Operation Epic Fury. Closer inspection of the footage shows the aircraft carrying loads of AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) air-launched cruise missiles.

“This came up in one of my threads yesterday as to B-52s and B-1s likely executing standoff strikes using cruise missiles fired from outside Iran, not direct attacks,” our own Tyler Rogoway has written on X. “This video confirms it, AGM-158 JASSMs on the wings. They were not ready to push anything but B-2s over Iran.”

This came up in one of my threads yesterday as to B-52s and B-1s likely executing standoff strikes using cruise missiles fired from outside Iran, not direct attacks. This video confirms it, AGM-158 JASSMs on the wings. They were not ready to push anything but B-2s over Iran. https://t.co/iYmHgUy2jK

— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) March 5, 2026

The Washington Post has reported on the U.S. military’s use of artificial intelligence (AI) driven tools to help with developing target packages and other tasks in support of Operation Epic Fury. U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, very briefly mentioned the contributions of AI at a press conference at the Pentagon yesterday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has visited Ovda Air Base, which is currently hosting U.S. combat jets. Pictures show U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors, which were reported to have arrived last week, as well as at least one F/A-18F Super Hornet. The presence of Super Hornets at Ovda does not look to have been previously disclosed.

IDF Logistics Command says it has already provided “hundreds of millions of liters of fuel” to support ongoing operations, according to The Jerusalem Post. Israel’s small fleet of KC-707 tankers has conducted 550 individual aerial refuelings, according to the Israeli Air Force. Before the conflict erupted, TWZ highlighted the immense value that U.S. tanker support would bring to any future operations against Iran.

The IDF Logistics Command said on Thursday that it has provided a staggering number of hundreds of millions of liters of fuel to enable the game-changing air war against Iran.

Reporting by: @Jeremybob1 https://t.co/MXB7NmL11U

— Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 5, 2026

כ-550 תדלוקים אוויריים בוצעו עד כה במבצע ״שאגת הארי״, על-ידי מטוסי התדלוק של טייסת 120 (״ענקי המדבר״).
מדובר בהיקף המהווה יותר מ-50% מסך התדלוקים שבוצעו בכל מבצע ״עם כלביא״.

התדלוק האווירי של מטוסי הקרב מהווה רכיב הכרחי בפעילות חיל-האוויר באיראן, ומאפשר את שימור העליונות… pic.twitter.com/j1NmEiJ55d

— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) March 5, 2026

The Institute for the Study of War has published additional satellite imagery analysis of damage to Ali al Salem Airbase in Kuwait from Iranian attacks.

2/ Iranian strikes targeting US bases in the region have caused some material damage and casualties. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on March 4 shows that Iranian airstrikes on the Ali al Salem Airbase in Kuwait damaged several buildings, including aircraft… pic.twitter.com/Gm4lS7sfJT

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) March 5, 2026

Iranian authorities claim to be engaged in “preemptive” operations targeting Iraqi-based “separatist groups.” This follows still conflicting reports that began emerging yesterday regarding the possibility of a ground incursion by armed Iranian Kurdish groups.

BREAKING: IRGC and the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence announce "preemptive joint operations" against "separatist groups" in Iraq who "intend to enter from the western borders of the country and carry out terrorist attacks with separatist goals in urban and border areas"

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 5, 2026

Reports that speak about a role of the Kurdistan Region and the allegations claiming that we are part of a plan to arm and send Kurdish opposition parties into Iranian territory are completely unfounded. We categorically deny them and affirm that they are being published…

— Peshawa Hawramani (@PHawraman) March 5, 2026

Iranian state media has also carried threats, attributed to unnamed officials, of attacks targeting the Israeli nuclear site at Dimona in the event of any concerted effort to unseat the current regime in Tehran.

Italian authorities say they are joining the multinational effort to bolster the defense of Cyprus in the face of Iranian attacks.

BREAKING:

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto:

“We will deploy a multi-domain force in the Middle East, with air-defense systems against drones and missiles.

Together with the Spanish and the French, we will bring assistance to Cyprus” pic.twitter.com/ZzzgXIdS7T

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 5, 2026

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Antony Blinken, who was U.S. Secretary of State under President Joe Biden, has suggested the Trump administration could seek to declare victory based on achievements so far as a possible off-ramp to the current conflict. Blinken also highlighted concerns about the impacts on U.S. munitions stocks and global energy markets if the fighting drags on.

Former U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: One possible off-ramp from the war with Iran is simply declaring victory.

Saying the ayatollah is gone and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs have been degraded — and leaving the future of the regime to the Iranian people.

1/ pic.twitter.com/sjmg0rzRht

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 4, 2026

Blinken: Watch the markets — oil, stocks, and bonds. President Trump is very attentive to them. If stocks and bonds fall, or oil rises sharply and stays there, that could become a limiting factor.

3/ pic.twitter.com/MzaYfjDHce

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 4, 2026

Blinken: One risk of the war with Iran is depleting U.S. arsenals so much that it takes years to rebuild them, leaving America at a disadvantage against powers like China or Russia.

If you undertake something like this, you must factor that in.

5X pic.twitter.com/tTNUvMQMqd

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 4, 2026

There are reports that 1,000 commercial vessels, roughly half of which are oil and natural gas tankers, are currently anchored in and around the Persian Gulf as operators weigh the risks of attempting to sail in and out of the region, citing data from Lloyd’s Market Association. As already noted, ships are being attacked while sailing and at anchor in the Persian Gulf, as well as the Gulf of Oman.

Around 1,000 vessels, roughly half oil and gas tankers, are currently in the Gulf and surrounding waters with an aggregate hull value exceeding $25 billion, Lloyd’s Market Association CEO says.

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 5, 2026

Ships attacked near the Strait of Hormuz

AFP Infographic with a map of the Strait of Hormuz showing ships that reported attacks or incidents to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) between March 1 and March 4 at 1700 GMT pic.twitter.com/bECVuFSvvP

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 5, 2026

Strait of Hormuz closure puts Dubai’s import lifeline under strain

Access to key Gulf container ports including Jebel Ali, Khalifa Port, Dammam, and ports in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait is currently blocked, with vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz down by an estimated… pic.twitter.com/1ZXcMVg2hV

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 5, 2026

UPDATE: 12:36 PM EST –

As the joint U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury attack on Iran continues into a sixth day, the war is spreading beyond the Middle East. On Thursday, Azerbaijani officials said Iranian drones struck territory and vowed to retaliate. The country shares a border with northwestern Iran.

“At around midday on 5 March, drone attacks were carried out against the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of the Republic of Azerbaijan from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “One drone struck the terminal building of the airport in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, while another drone fell near a school building in the village of Shakarabad. We strongly condemn these drone attacks launched from the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which resulted in damage to the airport building and injuries of two civilians.”

İran İslam Respublikası ərazisindən Azərbaycan Respublikasının Naxçıvan Muxtar Respublikasına dron hücumları barədə bəyanat

⬇️⬇️⬇️https://t.co/9r6dAtC3Ap

ENG

Statement on drone attacks against the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of the Republic of Azerbaijan from the… pic.twitter.com/JJhnm0WYs8

— MFA Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 (@AzerbaijanMFA) March 5, 2026

Four people were injured in the attack, according to Azerbaijani officials, and Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev told a meeting of his Security Council that his country would respond militarily.

“We will not tolerate this unprovoked act of terror and aggression against Azerbaijan,” he proclaimed, according to Reuters. “Our Armed Forces have been instructed to prepare and implement appropriate retaliatory measures. We are ready to demonstrate our strength ⁠against any hostile force – and they should not forget this in Iran.”

Aliyev did not offer specifics about what kind of retaliation.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi denied Tehran had targeted Nakhchivan, saying, “We do not attack our neighboring countries.”

Video seen below is said to show the aftermath of these attacks.

BREAKING:

Iranian suicide drones keep striking Nakhchivan Airport in Azerbaijan.

Iran is now attacking almost every country they can. The neighboring countries won’t put up with this craziness for too long. pic.twitter.com/RhUkOAQtee

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 5, 2026

Meanwhile, several nations continue to send more military assets to Cyprus. Sky News reported on X that the U.K., Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands are all deploying warships to help bolster the island nation’s defenses. Notably, French President Emmanuel Macron has ordered the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to head to the eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Greece has already deployed four F-16s to the island.

Italy, Spain and Netherlands will send naval ships to protect Cyprus, it’s been announced. They’ll join a Greek warship (already in place), French warship (also in place) and British warship (once it leaves UK next week)

— Alistair Bunkall (@AliBunkallSKY) March 5, 2026

This comes as RAF Akrotiri, a British air base on Cyprus, continues to come under attack. On Thursday, an image emerged showing what appears to be a hole punctured in a hangar regularly used by U.S. Air Force U-2 Dragon Lady spy planes operating from the base. A one-way attack drone hit the RAF Akrotiri base late on Sunday, March 1. It is unclear if any aircraft were there at the time.

The U.K. Defense Ministry told us that there were no casualties and that damage to the base was “minimal.” There was “no damage to equipment inside the hangar,” the official added.

We’ve reached out to the U.S. Air Force and U.S. European Command for comment and will update this story with any pertinent details provided.

🚨 SCOOP: Photo of damage to secret US spy site on RAF Akrotiri.

The drone hit a hangar for US U-2 spy planes on Operation Olive Harvest

Is this “minimal” as per John Healey?

UK Home Sec Yvette Cooper claimed the drone hit the runway. Not true.https://t.co/RsWYSDy9De

— Jerome Starkey (@jeromestarkey) March 5, 2026

Iran claims it has now begun employing Khorramshahr-4 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) in strikes on Israel, but firm corroborating evidence has yet to emerge. The IRGC said it fired a volley of these missiles at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport earlier today.

NEW: Iranian state media reported that a Khorramshahr-4 heavy missile was launched early this morning toward Israeli territory.

According to the report, the missile carries a one-ton warhead and has an estimated range of about 2,000 kilometers. pic.twitter.com/3sqMLxRv0a

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 5, 2026

The Khorramshahr-4 is said to carry a 3,300-pound warhead, the heaviest payload of any of Iran’s ballistic missiles, which would allow for a broader swath of targets to be threatened with greater damage from any successful impacts. Khorramshahr-4s could also be fired from areas further in the eastern interior of the country, reducing vulnerability to U.S. and Israeli strikes that have already significantly degraded Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones. You can read more about what is known about this missile, which is derived from a North Korean design, here.

So far, Israel has not reported any casualties or major damage resulting from Iranian volleys today, and authorities in the country have highlighted a notable drop in overall attacks.

There are no reports of injuries following the latest Iranian ballistic missile salvo on central Israel, medics say.

A small number of missiles were launched in the attack, according to preliminary military assessments. There are no reports of impacts in residential areas.… https://t.co/PsOdR4AWv4

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

The rate of Iran’s ballistic missile fire on Israel continues to slow, according to the Israeli military, with all projectiles fired overnight being successfully intercepted by air defenses.

Iran fired at central Israel three times overnight, lobbing a handful of ballistic…

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 5, 2026

The IDF has now released a video of yesterday’s shootdown of one of Iran’s Russian-made Yak-130 light jets by an F-35I Adir fighter, which appears to be a view from the latter’s targeting system. You can read more about this engagement, which is the first known instance of an F-35 of any kind destroying a crewed aircraft, here.

The Pentagon and at least one Gulf Arab nation have reportedly reached out to Ukraine for cheap interceptors to help fend off waves of low-cost Iranian drones that have killed American troops and caused widespread damage across the Middle East. The talks, reported by the Financial Times, come amid continuing questions about the sufficiency of stocks of anti-air interceptors as Iran’s retaliatory attacks continue. As we have frequently noted, Ukraine has made significant investments in the development of new, lower-cost interceptors in response to years now of Russian drone attacks.

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also acknowledged the interest in his country’s counter-drone systems.

“We received signals from partners in the Middle East,” he explained on X. “There have been strikes by Iranian ‘Shaheds’ on civilians in those countries. They are seeking our expertise. We are open. If their representatives come, we will provide the expertise. Especially since there is also a request from Europeans and from the United States. Requests have come to us to share our experience with partners in the Middle East.”

However, Zelensky also stated his oft-repeated concern about his own country’s stock of interceptors and suggested a swap of those for Patriot missiles.

“Regarding weapons: we ourselves are at war. And I said, completely frankly, that we have a shortage of what they have,” the Ukrainian leader noted. “They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of ‘Shaheds’ cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles – it is too costly. Nothing is too much for the people, of course, but they simply do not have that many missiles. That is why they need interceptor drones, which we have. Meanwhile, we have a shortage of PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles. So, when it comes to technology or weapons exchange, I believe our country will be open to it.”

We received signals from partners in the Middle East. There have been strikes by Iranian “shaheds” on civilians in those countries. They are seeking our expertise. We are open. If their representatives come, we will provide the expertise. Especially since there is also a request…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) March 5, 2026

While the Pentagon eyes Ukrainian interceptors, U.S. Central Command is reportedly seeking additional personnel to help handle the flow of intelligence pouring in from the Middle East. CENTCOM “is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September,” Politico reported, citing a notification it obtained.

“It’s the first known call for additional intelligence personnel for the Iran war by the administration, and a sign the Pentagon is already allocating funding for operations that may stretch long beyond President Donald Trump’s initial four-week timeline for the conflict,” the outlet posited. “The rush to add people and resources to support efforts that are often organized well in advance of U.S. military action highlights how the Trump team had not fully anticipated the wide fallout of the war it launched alongside Israel on Saturday.”

"U.S. Central Command, meanwhile, is asking the Pentagon to send more military intelligence officers to its headquarters in Tampa, Florida, to support operations against Iran for at least 100 days but likely through September, according to a notification obtained by POLITICO."…

— Ali Vaez (@AliVaez) March 5, 2026

It has been pointed out that the “through September” timeline for these temporary deployments may simply be dictated by standard personnel management procedures.

I’m seeing a lot of commentary about CENTCOM’s request for intelligence officers to support ops in Iran “through September”. Worldwide Individual Augmentee System taskers often reassign personnel on a temporary basis for 179 days (through September). pic.twitter.com/KmyjPrZJjQ

— Crispin Burke (@CrispinBurke) March 5, 2026

CENTCOM has released a new video showing attacks on Iranian hardened shelters and aircraft out in the open.

The Iranian regime's ability to impact U.S. forces and regional partners is rapidly declining, while American combat power continues to build. pic.twitter.com/21TXHbWwFi

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 5, 2026

CENTCOM has also highlighted new attacks on Iranian mobile missile launchers. As we noted yesterday, these strikes have been a big focus of Epic Fury and have helped drastically reduce the number of missiles Iran has launched.

The effort to eliminate the Iranian regime's mobile missile launch capabilities continues. We are finding and destroying these threats with lethal precision. pic.twitter.com/AkGRYOjnOz

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 5, 2026

A new uncrewed surface vessel attack on a commercial ship has been reported. The Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe, which was anchored in Iraqi waters, is said to have been struck. As we previously reported, the first Iranian kamikaze boat attack during Epic Fury took place on March 2 on a ship in the Gulf of Oman.

BASRA, Iraq, March 5 (Reuters) – An Iranian remote controlled boat laden with explosives was used on Thursday to target and damage the Bahamas flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe anchored in Iraqi waters, according to initial assessments from two Iraqi port security sources.… https://t.co/cvaQ25S1pZ pic.twitter.com/l4pDRmaNHc

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 5, 2026

A video emerged on social media purporting to show the moment that USV hit the Sonangol Namibe.

In the wake of the sinking of an Iranian frigate by a U.S. Navy fast attack submarine, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi called the incident an “atrocity” and vowed revenge. The unnamed American submarine sank the Moudge class frigate IRIS Dena in the Indian Ocean near the island of Sri Lanka. Our sister site Task & Purpose has reported that a Los Angeles class submarine was responsible. Regardless, it is was the first sinking by a U.S. Navy submarine since World War II.

“Mark my words,” he stated on X. “The U.S. will come to bitterly regret [the] precedent it has set.”

The U.S. has perpetrated an atrocity at sea, 2,000 miles away from Iran's shores.

Frigate Dena, a guest of India's Navy carrying almost 130 sailors, was struck in international waters without warning.

Mark my words: The U.S. will come to bitterly regret precedent it has set. pic.twitter.com/cxYiI9BLUk

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 5, 2026

The Indian government has also now released a statement with details about the rescue effort after the IRIS Dena was torpedoed.

Satellite imagery collected today shows what appears to be oil on the surface of the water near Galle, Sri Lanka, which could be tied to the sinking of the IRIS Dena.

Imagery collected earlier today shows oil floating on the water surface 25-nautical miles west of Galle, Sri Lanka in the vicinity of where a Sri Lankan naval vessel was observed patrolling yesterday – possibly linked to the sinking of Iranian Navy Ship Dena https://t.co/9o2AX3qi5d pic.twitter.com/IjSiqnBxgK

— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) March 5, 2026

Meanwhile, another Iranian ship is seeking shelter in Sri Lanka.

“The Sri Lankan minister Nalinda Jayatissa told parliament that another Iranian vessel was sailing close to Sri Lanka’s territorial waters on Thursday morning,” The Guardian reported. “We are making necessary interventions to resolve this issue, restrict the threat to lives and to ensure regional security.”

Unnamed sources told The Guardian that “the ship was a logistical pipe-laying vessel, which is not categorised as a warship. It may be as close as 10 nautical miles from the western coast of Sri Lanka, putting it within the country’s sovereign waters.”

Sri Lanka has granted approval for an Iranian vessel IRINS Bushehr to dock at Trincomalee Harbour, with passengers to be evacuated and transferred to Colombo before the vessel proceeds to Trincomalee. pic.twitter.com/e8ePf31NO5

— Sri Lanka Tweet 🇱🇰 (@SriLankaTweet) March 5, 2026

The sources told the news outlet that the ship, which is reported to have a crew of more than 100 onboard, “had made an urgent request to dock at Colombo port for engine repairs.”

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com