Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***Iran Hostilities have increased notably in the last few days, effectively ending the U.S.-Iranian truce that had somewhat held since April. At the start of June, fighting further intensified between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon, complicating U.S.-Iranian negotiations, as Iran has insisted on linking U.S.-Iranian talks with an end to Israeli actions against Hizballah. The fighting in Lebanon led to Israel and Iran trading direct strikes on June 7. Then, on June 8, Iran reportedly downed an American Apache helicopter, and the United States responded with strikes against radar and air defense sites. Iran then targeted U.S. military bases in the region.Escalating beyond the tit-for-tat approach, the United States significantly stepped up attacks on June 10 and 11, hitting multiple targets in Iran, particularly in southern Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes aimed at U.S. military targets in the region. Later, on June 11, Trump said he was canceling further planned strikes, suggesting that Iran’s government had agreed to a deal. However, Trump has touted a deal as nearly done more than three dozen times, so observers will be watching to see what happens next.Despite some efforts by the United States and other countries to assist ships in safely transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic remains far below pre-war volumes. The significant impacts on the global economy are continuing to put pressure on Washington to reach a deal with Iran that reopens the strait, but a functioning agreement has remained elusive. The fundamentals haven’t changed: Washington wants an agreement that reopens the strait, addresses concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, and preferably much more, while the Iranian regime views its
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