Iran Intensifies Strikes on Gulf Energy Facilities

The Fallout of South Pars

The Iran war cast a dark shadow over the Middle East on Friday as many in the region celebrated the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr and the Persian New Year, known as Nowruz. With the U.S. military mulling deployments up to and including landings, and with Israeli and Iranian forces trading deadly strikes that have put Gulf states in the crossfire, the conflict appears to be far from a peaceful solution.

Iran intensified its attacks on Arab oil and natural gas facilities on Friday. According to the state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, a second consecutive day of Iranian drone strikes on the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery ignited fires on Friday. Energy operations in the Emirati cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi were targeted, and Saudi Arabia confirmed that its Samref refinery had been hit.

Tehran had vowed on Wednesday to target the Gulf’s oil and gas infrastructure after the Israeli military launched a massive attack earlier that day on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which accounts for as much as 75 percent of the country’s natural gas production. In retaliation, Iran extensively damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility, reducing its exports by around 17 percent and costing roughly $20 billion in lost annual revenue, according to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi. The damage is expected to take up to five years to repair.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—at the behest of U.S. President Donald Trump—pledged to refrain from further strikes on South Pars. Still, Trump posted on Truth Social that if Iran continues attacking Qatar, the United States will “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”

The U.S. military appears to be ramping up its war efforts in the region. Unnamed U.S. military officials told the New York Times on Friday that three warships carrying a total of 2,500 additional Marines were en route to the Middle East, where they are expected to replace troops who deployed to the area from Japan last week. Although Trump has publicly stated that he has no intention of putting U.S. boots on the ground, some of these Marine units have the ability to launch small-scale ground incursions and assist in evacuation missions.

At the same time, Trump reiterated his frustration on Friday with Washington’s European allies, which have stopped short of deploying warships to the region to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “[T]hey complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!”

Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel on Friday, raising costs for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel around the world.

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Prepared for battle. The Danish military sent explosives and blood supplies to Greenland in January in anticipation of a potential U.S. attack to seize the semi-autonomous territory, Denmark’s public broadcaster DR reported on Thursday. DR also reported that the sudden public deployment of Danish troops to Greenland that month to participate in a military exercise was part of a larger deterrence operation aimed at dissuading Trump from attempting to capture the strategically located, mineral-rich island. That included dispatching enough explosives to destroy Greenland’s main runways—located near the capital of Nuuk and at a former fighter base in Kangerlussuaq—as well as having enough blood on hand in case of a combat situation.

“We were very worried this was going to go really wrong,” one European official told the Financial Times on Thursday regarding Trump’s repeated threats over Greenland.

Sources told DR that Trump’s capture of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January was a turning point for Denmark; two days after that operation, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned that a U.S. attack on a NATO ally would mean the end of the alliance. “The international community as we know it, democratic rules of the game, NATO, the world’s strongest defensive alliance—all of that would collapse if one NATO country chose to attack another,” Frederiksen said.

NATO chief Mark Rutte ultimately defused the conflict at the World Economic Forum later that month, striking a “framework of a future deal” with Trump that would increase Washington’s access to Greenland, both in terms of troop deployments and critical minerals, as well as enhance the alliance’s presence in the Arctic.

Alleged Iranian espionage. Two Iranian nationals appeared in a London court on Thursday to face charges of spying on Jewish and Israeli institutions in England on behalf of Tehran’s intelligence service over five weeks last summer. Their targets reportedly included the United Kingdom’s oldest functioning synagogue, Bevis Marks; the Israeli Embassy and Consulate in London; a Jewish community center; and a rabbinical training school.

Although the alleged activity predates the current U.S.-Israel war against Iran, Britain’s security services have warned of the threat that the Iranian regime poses to the United Kingdom. Last year, the head of MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, said that since January 2022, the agency as well as British police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots to kidnap or kill British nationals or people based in the United Kingdom whom Iran’s government saw as a threat.

The United Kingdom has not joined the ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. However, the United Kingdom announced on Friday that it will now allow the U.S. military to use its bases to attack Iranian sites that are targeting the Strait of Hormuz; previously, London had only allowed Washington to use them for defensive actions. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer “is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran. Iran will exercise its right to self-defense.”

The stakes in Slovenia. Slovenians will head to the polls on Sunday for a key parliamentary election, during which liberal Prime Minister Robert Golob will face off against pro-Trump populist Janez Jansa. Local polling predicts a tight race between Golob’s Freedom Movement and Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party; however, neither group is expected to secure a majority in Ljubljana’s 90-seat parliament, which means that smaller coalition partners may end up determining the contest’s outcome.

Much is at stake in Sunday’s election. Domestically, Golob is focused on social policy, green technology, and institutional reforms, whereas Jansa seeks to cut funding for welfare and media programs as well as grant tax breaks to businesses. The future of Ljubljana’s foreign agenda is also on the table. Under Golob, Slovenia became one of the few European nations to recognize an independent Palestinian state and the first to impose an arms embargo on Israel. Those policies would likely reverse under Jansa, who is a staunch supporter of Israel.

But allegations of foreign manipulation have already soured some voters’ trust ahead of the vote. This week, Golob accused “foreign services” of interfering in the country’s upcoming election after a state intelligence report found that representatives of Black Cube, a private Israeli spy firm, had visited Slovenia, including Jansa’s headquarters. Jansa has admitted to meeting with Black Cube representatives but has denied any wrongdoing.

Odds and Ends

The first time that FP’s World Brief writer got behind the wheel, she drove circles in an empty Target parking lot under the watchful eye of her white-knuckled mother. The daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has had a slightly different experience. State media published photos on Friday of the girl, believed to be around age 13, driving a tank during offensive army tactical drills at a North Korean training base the day before. Her proud father—and three soldiers—supervised her excursion.

Kim is believed to be preparing his daughter to eventually succeed him, with the two having recently been seen firing pistols at a munitions factory and watching a live-fire rocket launch together. You know, just classic father-daughter bonding activities.