Global oil demand will fall by about one million barrels a day in 2026 as the war between the United States and Iran weighs on the world economy, the International Energy Agency has said.
The agency warned that the fighting was creating fresh uncertainty for consumers, businesses and energy markets. Higher risks around shipping and supply could weaken demand further if the conflict escalates.
Oil production rose by 4.1 million barrels a day in June as some supplies returned to the market. However, output remained below levels recorded before the war began.
The IEA also warned that worsening tensions between Washington and Tehran could disrupt expectations of an oil surplus in 2027.
A surplus means producers supply more oil than the world uses, which usually puts downward pressure on prices. But renewed attacks, shipping delays or tighter restrictions on exports could quickly reduce that extra supply.
The agency’s forecast shows that the oil market remains highly vulnerable to the conflict, even as production begins to recover.
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