During the Armed Forces Day address in Thohoyandou on February 21, 2026, President Cyril Ramaphosa issued a direct pledge to reverse the long term decline of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF). Speaking to an audience gathered near the Thavhani Mall, the Commander-in-Chief acknowledged that the persistent tapering of military funding is a trajectory that "can no longer continue". He emphasised a strategic pivot to reposition the military, ensuring that operational resources finally align with the high tempo of current missions.
Despite this executive commitment to treat the SANDF as a shield for the vulnerable, the 2026 Estimates of National Expenditure (ENE) reveal a contradictory fiscal reality. While the President spoke of targeted interventions to close funding gaps, the National Treasury's figures show the defence budget will shrink by R2 billion in the coming year.
THE FISCAL DISCONNECT
The 2025/26 defence budget (Vote 23) sits at R59 billion, but projections indicate a drop to R57.6 billion for the 2026/27 cycle. This represents a 1.5% average growth rate over the medium term, which fails to keep pace with inflation and constitutes a decrease in real terms. This budgetary contraction is largely attributed to the Regional Security subprogramme, following the phased withdrawal from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) under Operation Thiba.
The withdrawal from the United Nations Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) marks the end of a 27-year commitment. Approximately 700 soldiers remain in the DRC, but the President confirmed that South Africa is drawing down its participation to consolidate and realign internal resources. This shift follows the early termination of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) in early 2025 after the fall of Goma to M23 rebels.
The resources previously tied to external peacekeeping are now being redirected toward domestic stability. President Ramaphosa authorised the deployment of SANDF elements to support the South African Police Service (SAPS) in a direct offensive against illegal mining and organised crime across Gauteng, the Eastern Cape, and the Western Cape.
To support these varied roles, the Treasury has allocated specific, albeit modest, injections across several critical domains. The Air Defence programme receives R1.4 billion over three years for fighter capability maintenance, aiming to increase flying hours from 6,210 in 2024/25 to a target of 12,000 per year. Maritime Defence is set to receive R1.6 billion over the same period to address the critical lack of serviceable vessels and to achieve 8,000 hours at sea annually. Additionally, R1 billion is provided via the Criminal Assets Recovery Account (CARA) for the fight against organised crime, while R500 million was previously allocated to begin the acquisition of new multipurpose vehicles for Operation Corona border safeguarding.
The most notable hurdle remains the modernisation of the Army's ageing backbone. Project Phalama, the R13 billion initiative to replace the ubiquitous Samil truck fleet with new generation support vehicles, is currently classified as "high risk." Though production was slated for June 2025, a lack of allocated funds on the Strategic Capital Acquisition Master Plan (SCAMP) has stalled progress.
Similarly, the long-delayed Project Hoefyster, intended to replace the Ratel Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV), remains in limbo. This has opened the door to private-sector proposals. The South African firm Jorsin has proposed a mid-engine upgrade for the existing Ratel fleet, mirroring the configuration of their Tau vehicle to improve reliability.
In the interim, the SANDF has relied on stopgap measures. In 2022, collaboration with Cuban specialists saw the refurbishment of over 10,000 vehicles, including Mamba personnel carriers and Mfezi ambulances. In 2024/25, Armscor selected a preferred supplier Milkor for nearly 500 new armoured personnel carriers (APCs) in three variants (Section, Command, and Ambulance) to bolster border security. These are intended to be off-the-shelf platforms modified for the specific environmental rigours of the Southern African bush.
The Department of Defence continues to grapple with a top-heavy compensation structure. Spending on the compensation of employees (CoE) accounts for roughly 65% of the total budget. To manage these costs, the department is implementing an early retirement programme for personnel hired under the Public Service Act, aiming for 227 exits by the end of 2026/27. The goal is to maintain an average headcount strength of approximately 74,000 personnel while containing commuted overtime within the South African Military Health Service (SAMHS).
Logistical updates are also visible on the ground. The Army is beginning the rollout of a new camouflage scheme, supported by a R255 million allocation for new uniforms. During the Armed Forces Day parade, the industry showcased modern assets including the Paramount Mbombe 6 and 8, the Twiga Nyati, and the Denel T5-52 truck-mounted 155 mm howitzer. The display even featured the rarely seen vehicle-mounted Umkhonto surface-to-air missile system.
Recently, the SANDF assisted in flood relief in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and neighbouring Mozambique, where SAAF Oryx and A109 helicopters rescued roughly 800 people. Furthermore, the South African Military Health Service (SAMHS) provided medical care to 50,000 people through Project Owethu, including 85 cataract procedures at Elim Hospital. These missions demonstrate the military's multifaceted role in national development, even as it navigates the friction between limited budgets and expanding operational demands.
The gap between executive intent and Treasury allocation remains a point of contention. Deputy Defence Minister Bantu Holomisa noted that current spending, at approximately 0.8% of GDP, falls far short of the 1.5% target suggested by the President. Defence analyst Ricardo Teixeira described the nominal 5.14% decrease as a threat to the very existence of SANDF capabilities by the end of the decade.
While the "targeted interventions" mentioned by President Ramaphosa provide some relief for the Air Force and Navy, the broader force continues to operate in a state of managed decline. The successful repositioning of the SANDF will depend not on ceremonial pledges, but on whether the 2027 budget cycle can finally reconcile the military's domestic and regional mandates with a sustainable funding model.
