US Intelligence: Russia Confident It Can Win Ukraine War, Risks Direct NATO Clash
US intelligence says Russia believes it can win in Ukraine and sees no reason to stop, warning the war could escalate into direct conflict with NATO and reshape global security.
Kyiv Post
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Russia believes it holds the upper hand in its war against Ukraine and sees little reason to halt fighting as long as its forces continue to gain ground, according to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment by the US Intelligence Community.
“Moscow almost certainly remains confident that it will prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine and force a settlement on its terms,” the report read.
US intelligence reveals that ongoing diplomatic efforts could still alter the trajectory of the war, with a potential settlement opening the door to improved US-Russia relations and broader geopolitical and economic engagement.
“A durable settlement to the war in Ukraine could open the door for a thaw in US-Russia relations and an improved bilateral geostrategic and commercial relationship,” as per the report.
US intelligence warns that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of escalation - including the possibility of direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
Moscow has already demonstrated a willingness to conduct sabotage operations against US and European allies to disrupt their support for Ukraine, including incidents such as a railway explosion in Poland in November 2025.
Russia’s repeated nuclear signaling, along with its use of dual-capable missile systems in Ukraine, further raises the risk of the conflict expanding into a broader regional or even existential threat to US.
In an interview with Kyiv Post, Daniel Fried, veteran US diplomat and former assistant secretary of state, says Ukraine is already involved as Washington seeks to build a coalition on Iran.
The war is also producing global spillover effects. North Korean troops have taken part in combat operations, gaining valuable battlefield experience and access to Russian military technology.
China’s economic and technological support has helped sustain Russia’s war effort and reduce incentives for a ceasefire.
“China’s imports of Russian oil and natural gas provide key sources of revenue for Moscow, helping it weather international sanctions. China’s exports of dual-use goods and technology to Russia help sustain Moscow’s defense production while reducing its incentives to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine,” US intelligence said.
Despite significant battlefield losses, Russia’s military remains resilient. The report notes that its ground forces have grown during the war, while its air and naval forces remain intact and, in some cases, more capable than before the invasion.
“The most dangerous threat posed by Russia to the US is an escalatory spiral in an ongoing conflict such as Ukraine or a new conflict that led to direct hostilities, including nuclear exchanges,” the report read.
Russia continues to develop advanced weapons systems, including hypersonic missiles, counterspace capabilities, and new nuclear platforms.
The war in Ukraine is also reshaping modern warfare. The widespread use of drones and autonomous systems has dramatically shortened adaptation cycles on the battlefield, with both sides rapidly developing new tactics and countermeasures.
The war has further highlighted the critical role of space-based services.
“Ukraine demonstrated for the first time that a nation without its own space infrastructure can integrate commercial and partner space services to defend against an adversary with established space systems and decades of military space operations experience,” as per the report.
US intelligence also highlights Russia’s use of chemical weapons in Ukraine and its broader erosion of arms control frameworks. While Moscow is likely to avoid large-scale use of weapons of mass destruction absent a major shift in the conflict, its actions continue to undermine international norms.
Economically, Russia has shown resilience to Western sanctions by building alternative financial systems and deepening partnerships with other adversarial states.
However, this comes at the cost of growing budget deficits, underinvestment in civilian sectors, and increasing dependence on China.
Beyond Ukraine, the war is affecting Russia’s broader strategic ambitions. While Moscow continues to prioritize regions such as the Arctic, the war has limited its ability to fully pursue those goals.
Julia Struck is a Deputy Head of News and correspondent for Kyiv Post who has previously worked as a parliamentary editor, journalist, and news editor. She has specialized in covering the work of the Ukrainian parliament, government, and law enforcement agencies.
