Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Sara Duterte becomes the first Philippine official to be impeached twice, Myanmar’s junta revives plans for a controversial Chinese megadam and Cambodian soldiers are injured on the border with Thailand.
Philippines Impeachment Kicks Off
The impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte started Monday. It marks the latest twist in the allies-to-enemies saga of the Duterte dynasty and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
Duterte is now the first Philippine official to be impeached twice, after 2025 impeachment proceedings against her were derailed for procedural reasons and did not lead to an acquittal or conviction. She has declined to attend the impeachment hearing, though she did meet with her legal team at the Senate on Tuesday.
Duterte stands accused of misappropriation of public funds, unexplained wealth, bribery of public officials, and threatening to assassinate the president.
The charges are centered on two key issues. First, Duterte’s alleged orchestration of graft in the Department of Education. Second, a 2024 speech in which she declared that she had contracted an assassin to kill Marcos, his wife, and the speaker of the House of Representatives if she was killed first.
However, the trial is widely seen having a strong political element. Duterte is the front-runner in early polling for the 2028 presidential election, and if convicted, she would be banned from standing.
The trial is the latest phase in the spectacular disintegration of the alliance between Marcos and the Duterte dynasty—a disintegration that saw former President Rodrigo Duterte arrested and sent to the International Criminal Court for trial last year.
Conviction would be difficult. For the impeachment to succeed, it must be supported by two-thirds of the chamber, which is 16 senators. Of the sitting senators, 14 are Duterte allies.
Those allies are coming under pressure. On Monday, Sen. Rodante Marcoleta was arrested on corruption charges and will likely not be able to attend trial, as one of the charges is a nonbailable offense.
Last month, another Duterte ally, Sen. Jose “Jinggoy” Estrada was also arrested on corruption charges. And a third Duterte ally, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, has been on the run from an ICC warrant that was issued in November, briefly reappearing in the Senate in May before disappearing again amid a firefight.
The arrests prompted speculation that with fewer senators in attendance, the impeachment threshold would be lowered. But on Monday, Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero, a canny operator who has straddled the Duterte and Marcos camps and is overseeing the trial, said that 16 votes would still be required to convict Duterte.
Still, more pro-Duterte senators may come under fire in what looks like political pressure tactics. Five other pro-Duterte senators, as well as Escudero himself, are facing investigations, mainly for accusations of corruption.
One of these five, Sen. Christopher “Bong” Go, has also been named as a co-perpetrator in the ICC’s trial of Rodrigo Duterte over abuses during the former president’s so-called “war on drugs” campaign, which prosecutors allege involved extrajudicial killing. Though, unlike with dela Rosa, the ICC has yet to issue a warrant for Go.
The use of corruption charges as a cudgel against uncooperative politicians is becoming increasingly common, as has occurred in Indonesia.
For the anti-Duterte crew, even an acquittal might be acceptable so long as the impeachment hearing damages her image ahead of the 2028 election. For now, she remains popular—but with a marked decline since 2024, when her rift with Marcos worsened and impeachment procedures ultimately started against her.
A heavy pall of cynicism hangs over these proceedings. Duterte stands accused of self-enrichment by supporters of Marcos, whose father—President Ferdinand Marcos Sr.—looted the Philippines.
Duterte, for her part, has invoked the spirit of the “People Power” revolution that toppled Marcos Sr. to try to ward off accusations of graft and consequences for her alleged threats to have the president and his wife assassinated.
Meanwhile, the Philippines continues to struggle. GDP growth is slowing. Inflation stood at 6.4 percent in June. And foreign direct investment has plummeted.
What We’re Watching
Junta’s infrastructure warfare. Myanmar’s junta is pushing to revive a controversial Chinese-backed megadam project in area heavily contested by rebels.
The government hopes to complete the Myitsone Dam within roughly eight years, according to reporting by Reuters. Initially planned to generate a capacity of 6,000 megawatts and estimated to cost $3.6 billion, the price tag today may stand at more than $11.5 billion.
Launched in 2009, the project was wildly controversial. Opposition focused on the large area that would be flooded, displacing locals, and the estimates that as much 90 percent of the power would go to China. The authoritarian government of 2011 announced the project’s suspension in a rare concession to public opinion.
Now it’s back on, not long after junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited China. Junta officials say that new technology will mitigate environmental impacts and that plan for the share of power Myanmar would receive has been revised.
The revival comes at a time when Myanmar’s government is ever more reliant on China. And Min Aung Hlaing is apparently personally annoyed that the project was canceled, blaming it on foreign agitators and saying that Myanmar would not have power shortages now if it had been completed.
Political power projection may also be at play. The area is only under shaky junta control, contested by the Kachin Independence Army, which opposes the dam. A Chinese-backed megaproject could help cement the junta’s presence.
Downriver Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam will be looking on anxiously. Chinese dams on the upper Mekong have already caused them major water management problems.
Border patrol soldiers injured. Cambodia says that four of its soldiers were injured in an explosion while on a border patrol in the province of Oddar Meanchey, a key conflict area during last year’s border wars with Thailand.
According to Cambodia’s Defense Ministry, troops on patrol along the border encountered a Thai unit that was on the other side of the barbed wire fence. Not long after the two patrols passed each other, an explosive device detonated behind the Cambodian patrol, leaving four soldiers with shrapnel injuries.
The ministry said it is now investigating the incident.
Thailand’s Defense Ministry immediately denied any involvement in the incident. It says that its own investigation had found that the explosion took place in Cambodian territory and had not been caused by Thai troops. One representative suggested that Cambodian troops might have stepped on an unmapped landmine.
This is just the latest incident to illustrate that despite the cease-fire between Cambodia and Thailand, the border remains unsettled. The presence of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations observer team has done little clarify to the situation.
Southeast Asia at Cannes. In the middle of a funeral, the corpse of a woman comes back to life and sits up. Other miracles follow, and a religious frenzy develops as her baffled husband looks on helplessly in a pleasingly offbeat comedy.
Holy Crowd, a short film jointly directed by Malaysian Tamil filmmaker Ananth Subramaniam and Indonesian filmmaker Reza Fahriyansyah, is showing at Cannes.
This is an important moment for Malaysia. In the past 30 years, just five Malaysian films have shown at Cannes. One of them was Bleat! in 2025, also by Subramaniam, about a Malaysian Tamil couple that prepares to sacrifice a male goat only to discover that it is pregnant.
Indonesia has done better, with roughly 11 films shown between 1989 and 2025, depending on exactly how you count it. But this was a big year by any measure, with five Indonesian-directed films featured—including Holy Crowd—thanks to Cannes picking Indonesia as the latest country for its film incubator program.
In Indonesia, the local film industry is growing in strength. More cinemas are opening, and local films are growing in popularity. Last year saw two local films—Agak Laen: Menyala Pantiku! (A Little Bit Different: Well Done, Nursing Home!), a broad comedy sequel, and Jumbo, a charming children’s animation—smash box office records, becoming the country’s first- and third-most successful films ever by audience numbers.
Photo of the Week
A Balinese woman in a state of trance dances during the sacred ritual of Ngerebong at Petilan Temple in Bali, Indonesia, on July 5.Johanes P. Christo/NurPhoto via Getty Images
